A Bayesian model for multiple change point to extremes,with application to environmental and financial data

Abrupt changes often occur for environmental and financial time series. Most often, these changes are due to human intervention. Change point analysis is a statistical tool used to analyze sudden changes in observations along the time series. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model for extreme values for environmental and economic datasets that present a typical change point behavior. The model proposed in this paper addresses the situation in which more than one change point can occur in a time series. By analyzing maxima, the distribution of each regime is a generalized extreme value distribution. In this model, the change points are unknown and considered parameters to be estimated. Simulations of extremes with two change points showed that the proposed algorithm can recover the true values of the parameters, in addition to detecting the true change points in different configurations. Also, the number of change points was a problem to be considered, and the Bayesian estimation can correctly identify the correct number of change points for each application. Environmental and financial data were analyzed and results showed the importance of considering the change point in the data and revealed that this change of regime brought about an increase in the return levels, increasing the number of floods in cities around the rivers. Stock market levels showed the necessity of a model with three different regimes.     

Appropriating Care and Hijacking Desire: Thought and Praxis in Human Services Under 21st Century Capitalism

In this article, we trace the rise of neoliberalism and its impacts on the historical role of human services within the academy and the community. We ask whether we can re-think and re-envision a 21st century academy rooted in the material actualities of daily living and connected in very real ways to the struggles of those Human Services was designed to serve. Finally, we propose that Human Services could have a significant role to play in developing new modes of value that could lead to new modes of thought and new avenues of praxis.     

Caregiver perceptions of empowerment and self-efficacy following youths’ discharge from residential care

ABSTRACT

Residential care is one of the most restrictive out-of-home care settings; however, this is a temporary placement and youth eventually reintegrate into the home and community setting. Reintegration presents many challenges, and aftercare becomes critical for maintaining youth gains and promoting family stability. Aftercare programs and supports should align to individual family needs that entail understanding individual and familial characteristics. Previous studies have explored characteristics related to family functioning, mental health, behavior, and perceptions of need during reintegration; yet little is known regarding how affective characteristics (i.e., self-efficacy, empowerment) factor into reintegration, or the implications this may have for providers. The purpose of this study was to address this gap by exploring empowerment and self-efficacy in caregivers (N = 120) who had a child return home within 1 month of departing residential care. Overall, caregivers reported high levels of empowerment and self-efficacy during the initial transition period. Significant differences for empowerment and self-efficacy were present in characteristics such as race, income, number of children in the home, and free/reduced lunch status.     

美国大学社会服务的“大学社区参与”模式评析

"大学社区参与"是20世纪90年代以来美国兴起的新型大学社会服务模式。这一模式在大学与社区的合作伙伴关系基础上,以社区需求和社会发展为动力,旨在推进大学教学、科研与服务功能的综合发展,具有学术性、综合性、互惠性、公共性等特征。大学领导层、组织机构、教师参与、组织文化以及大学与社区的权力关系等因素共同决定着"大学社区参与"模式的运行状况。"大学社区参与"模式对我国大学社会服务的现代发展具有借鉴意义。     

Short Break and Respite Services for Disabled Children in England: Comparing Children's and Parents' Perspectives of Their Impact on Children

Researchers, health and social care workers often seek to understand the perspectives of children; but gathering views directly from children can present difficulties. Parents are often asked to provide accounts of children's feelings or opinions on the assumption that their proxy reports are accurate and unproblematic. This qualitative thematic analysis of open‐question responses from 352 parents and 73 disabled children examines their accounts of the impact of short break services on disabled children. Participants' perspectives differed; children tended to describe immediate outcomes such as enjoying activities and participation; parents acknowledged these, but focused on longer term developmental outcomes for children.     

从第三方支付发展看上海国际金融中心建设

互联网时代第三方支付的发展,揭示了企业"控制用户信息流以控制支付流,控制支付流以控制资金流;获得用户网络接入权胜过获得资本所有权,获得数据投入量胜过获得资金投入量"的新规则。大平台日益成为金融机构控制用户信息流、获得用户网络接入权的重要载体,在平台组合上加载信用有关数据流日益成为形成金融机构风险管理能力的重要生产资料。在互联网时代推进上海国际金融中心建设,既要继续重视金融机构集聚,更要注重鼓励企业赢得全国性用户网络接入权,加强平台组合,增强信用数据流。上海应依托自贸试验区推进互联网金融监管创新;牵头建立长三角征信联盟集团公司;搭建本地金融机构网聚平台。     

The bumpy road to ‘becoming’: capturing the stories that teenage mothers told about their journey into motherhood

Understanding the experience of women who become mothers during their teenage years is central to ensuring that the support that is offered is appropriate to meet their needs. This paper reports on a small part of a larger ethnographic study that captured the lived experience of young mothers who were between the ages of 16 and 19 years that potentially typifies and illuminates the experiences of young women who become mothers in their teenage years. By collecting data from narrative interviews as well as participant and non‐participant observations over an extended period of time it was possible to identify how the young women experienced a range of difficulties as they made their transition into motherhood. Drawing on the findings, this paper argues that this transition for teenage mothers can be significantly different from the experience of older mothers, and it identifies the importance of appropriate support to mediate the challenges that they face. Understanding the young women's journey to ‘becoming’ is critical when planning services because if their experience of support is negative, it can lead to increased levels of maternal stress and reluctance to engage with support services.     

Good personal finances or a strong social capital—on different life conditions of importance for an active life when becoming alone in old age

Becoming alone in old age can be a decisive life event that brings major changes depending on various causes as health status, financial resources, family situation, and available welfare services. This article discusses the situation of older people in Sweden who have transitioned from a two-person to single-person household in recent years and what impact this might have on their everyday lives. Through in-depth interviews with 18 older people, age 67–90, their experiences about life conditions and opportunities were examined. Findings showed large differences between the men and women. They all tried to live as they always had done and they used the same personal life strategies that they always had. But the men could live as before on their own financial merits, while the women needed assistance from children, grandchildren and the welfare system. Transportation options were central and clearly related to both private economy and social services available. Shortcomings in the welfare state's way of caring for the elderly were clearly uncovered. The gap between social policy promises of opportunities for autonomy and independence to live an active life in old age and the everyday reality for older people still seems to be wide.     

体育产业的投融资环境建设:市场及参与者

本文运用文献资料法,数理统计法对投融资环境、产业投资基金等体育产业发展的投融资因素进行了分析与讨论。统计分析表明:投融资环境的有效发展是促进经济发展的主要方面。促进资本市场的建设及发展产业投资基金对于体育产业的发展来说是至关重要的。通过市场建设及产业投资基金的发展,不仅能通过增加流动性提高体育资产的价值,也能增加市场对资源的配置效率,有力地促进整个体育产业的发展。     

Managing the process of change in residential child care: A consultancy approach

This article explores the impact of a consultancy undertaken with groups of residential child care staff within a large local authority who were experiencing considerable changes in their working environment as a result of a review of residential care structures. The authors were invited to engage directly with staff on an individual and group basis to help them work through the barriers they perceived to changing their approach to practice. The theoretical underpinning for the work was Charles Handy's [1993, Understanding Organisations (Harmondsworth, Penguin)] belief that change is more likely to have a positive outcome when staff have an investment in and contribution to the change processes. The model of change utilised within the sessions with staff was Kurt Lewin's three stages of 'unfreezing', 'change' and 'refreezing'. The consultancy raised a number of issues about the process of change and how this can be achieved within the residential child care context. In particular, it highlighted the problems of assuming that change is a linear process which can be directly controlled and managed in the flux and uncertainty which characterises this sector.